I plotted the numbers of subscribers to the popular SlashDot blog:
date subscribers log(subscr.)
jul-03 ------- 1 ------- 0,00
aug-03------23 -------1,36
sep-03 ----- 47 ------- 1,67
okt-03 -----105 ------- 2,02
nov-03 ---- 142 ------- 2,15
dec-03 -----205 ------- 2,31
jan-04 -----321 -------- 2,51
feb-04 ---- 463 -------- 2,67
mrt-04 ---- 654 -------- 2,82
28-3 -------842 -------- 2,93
This is indeed exponential growth with 1000 subscribers expected in may-04,
10.000 in nov-04, and 100.000 in june next year.
Then, indeed blogs would be a medium of importance.
Let us see whether my predictions will come true
extrapolated:
date subscr. log(subcr.) growth(log)
may-04----------1,189------3,08-------0,15
jun-04-----------1,680------3,23-------0,15
jul-04-----------2,373-------3,38-------0,15
aug-04----------3,352------3,53-------0,15
sep-04----------4,734------3,68-------0,15
oct-04-----------6,688------3,83-------0,15
nov-04----------9,447------3,98-------0,15
dec-04---------13,344------4,13-------0,15
jan-05---------18,850------4,28-------0,15
feb-05---------26,626------4,43-------0,15
mar-05--------37,610------4,58-------0,15
apr-05---------53,126------4,73-------0,15
may-05-------75,043-------4,88-------0,15
jun-05-------106,001-------5,03-------0,15
At a certain moment, saturation will have to set in. When will that be?
Any comments on these extrapolations are welcome.
Does anyone know of subscriber data over longer periods?
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